Post NFL Draft Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
2024 NFL Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
1 — QB Caleb Williams (Chicago; #1) — He’s the #1 overall pick across the board UNLESS you play in a shallow, 1 QB, redraft league. Why is he the top selection? He enters a team built around him with near elite-level depth and quality at pass-catching positions. He’s a solid bet to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback as a rookie.
2 — QB Jayden Daniels (Washington, #2) — In non-dynasty, redraft formats, I would drop him to around 13 and only as a backup with QB1 upside due to his mobility. However he has enough offensive talent (Jahan Doton, Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler) to take some pressure off, and he could surprise in year one.
3 — WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Arizona, #4) — MHJ has been groomed to be a great player. He is the son of a former HOF receiver. Harrison has better size and speed than his father and will immediately be a featured receiver. In fantasy, it’s unclear if he’ll live up to expectations as a rookie catching passes from Kyler Murray, but he will certainly have WR3/Flex capabilities.
4 — WR Malik Nabers (New York Giants, #6) — The Giants desperately need an offensive playmaker, and Nabers has the potential to be a dominant all-pro difference-maker. From a fantasy pov, being dependent on Daniel Jones isn’t the best landing spot but Nabers could be the exception, and the volume will undoubtedly be there. WR3/Flex is well within reason.
5 — QB Drake Maye* (NE, #3) — Drop him 25 spots in redraft, single-QB leagues. But as the #3 overall pick, he’s guaranteed multiple years to prove himself. He has tremendous size/mobility measurements and was productive at UNC to project him to all pro-ceiling talent.
6 — WR Rome Odunze (Chicago, #9) $40 — He may not be an immediate fantasy starter, but his talent needs to be stronger, not be a contributor to fantasy lineups by the 2nd half of the 2024 season.
7 — WR Xavier Worthy (KC Chiefs, #28) — Chiefs featured receiver spot is wide open. Kelce is the primary red zone, but his effectiveness is on the decline. Rashee Rice looked good but he wasn’t special. Worthy has the college productivity, athletic profile, and draft capital to justify a top 10 fantasy rookie ranking.
8 — QB J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota; #10) — McCarthy lands in a great spot with elite receiving weapons, a top notch coach and scheme fit. Pundits are universally convinced JJ is good but not great, that he needs time to develop. They maybe accurate but this fit is near perfect.
9 — RB Jonathan Brooks (Carolina; #46) — Draft evaluators all say Brooks sans ACL and more college productivity (remember he was behind Bijan Robinson & Roschon Johnson before the ’23 season) would have been a first-round pick. Landing in Carolina, he fits their new scheme well, and while he won’t be a guaranteed fantasy start to begin the season, he should finish the year as a sound RB2.
10 — TE Brock Bowers (Las Vegas, #13) — A stud by every measure, Bowers was extremely productive all three years at Georgia. He’s a monster in the slot and inline, can block, and is likely an immediate second-target option in LV. He will be a likely TE1 immediately and can ascend to the number one overall tight end spot by 2026.
11 — WR Keon Coleman (Buffalo, 34) — The FSU transfer was a big reason the Seminoles were undefeated in the regular season. Coleman walks into Buffalo as the likely number-one target; he has WR2 potential as a rookie and WR1 (top 5) potential in ’25. If selected earlier, he would be list, but the Buffalo landing spot is an ideal scheme and opportunity fit.
12 — QB Bo Nix* (Denver Broncos, 12) — People forget that Nix was the SEC freshman of the year, started nearly 60 games in college, and got better throughout. Yes, he’s 24, but he was hand-picked by Sean Payton, who believes Nix is a strong system fit and will start from day one. He’s QB2 in ’24, but there’s more ceiling than the general public is giving him credit for.
13 — WR Xavier Lagette (CAR, #32) — I love Lagette’s size, his versatility and potential at the NFL level. He reminds me of a bigger Deebo Samuel, albeit with slightly less aggression in his game. Paired with Bryce Young, Lagette could see 120 targets in ’24, many near the line of scrimmage, padding his fantasy productivity immediately.
14 — WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville, #23) — BTJ had a monster junior year; he has an outstanding size/speed ratio. If he landed in CAR, KC, or Buffalo, he would be 7 picks higher on this list. He can and should ascend to the top dog in Jacksonville in a year or two, however, Trevor Lawrence has Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Gabe Davis, so 2024 is looking like a development season.
15 — QB Michael Penix* (Atlanta, #8)— Many will complain about this spot for Penix, and he could easily fall another 5 to 10 slots, but I think Penix is going to be very good; he won’t contribute until ’25, or more likely ’26.
16 — WR Ladd McConkey (LAC, 34) — Most will select McConkey at 14 on this list. Like Keon Coleman, he enters a wide-open receiver room (their top 2 targets departed); however, unlike Coleman, we’ve not seen McConkey excel in a full college season. So we’re projecting not only that he will succeed at the NFL level but do so beyond what he ever did in college. He’s a sound WR3 but I don’t love his ceiling.
17 — WR Ricky Pearsall (SF, 31) — Pearsall is a complex projection. He was more productive in a less functional offense in the SEC than McConkey, but he still leaves much to be desired. He enters an elite offense with four mouths to feed ahead of him. If you believe the scheme fit and potential for a Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk trade, he’s worth bumping up a few slots; otherwise, this is a pick for ’25.
18 — WR Ja’Lynn Polk (NE, 37) — I don’t know where to place Polk, but here are the facts. The Patriots receiving depth chart is Kendrick Bourne, DeMario Douglass, and Hunter Henry. Polk is already slated to start, and he’s the only guy with a WR1 ceiling — and with Maye’s arm, it’s plausible Polk is a WR3 with upside in ’24.
19 — RB Trey Benson (Arizona, #66) — Benson is my favorite rookie back and he landed in a sneaky good spot. With Kyler Murray reducing his running and only James Conner ahead of him, he likely sees 100+ touches in the worst-case scenario in ’24. Still, he will ascend to RB2+ status when Conner suffers his annual injury bug. Long term Benson has as much upside as Brooks, and is a good
20 — RB Blake Corum (LAR, #83) — The athletic profile and college efficiency stats don’t paint a stellar picture for Corum on the NFL level. However, the landing spot is excellent. McVay’s offenses spread the defense and give the back one-cut lane and easy screen touches. With only undrafted, injury-prone, mediocre athletic profile Kyren Williams ahead of him, Corum has a shot to be the primary back in ’24.
21 — WR Adonai Mitchell (INDY, 52) — This is the biggest boom-or-bust receiver in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. His athletic profile and competitiveness could have justified a top-20 selection, but his off-the-field immaturity pushed him to the mid-2nd round. I like Mitchell a lot. If you’re an Anthony Richardson believer, go all in on Mitchell. He has the talent and mental mindset to be a WR1.
22 — RB MarShawn Lloyd (Green Bay, 88) — Green Bay mostly revamped its backfield this offseason, replacing Aaron Jones with Josh Jacobs and selecting Lloyd in the third round. Lloyd is a more versatile AJ Dillon with featured-back potential, but he’s blocked from meaningful touches.
23 — WR Roman Wilson (PIT, 84) — Was Wilson a product of the Michigan system or an underutilized talent who will flourish in the NFL? I wish he had landed in a more productive passing system with less competition. But at this point in the rookie draft, this is a good spot for the third-round Steelers pick.
24 — WR Malachi Corley (NYJ, 65) — Corley is another in a list of “Deebo” like receivers NFL teams would love to have. The challenge with Corley is that he doesn’t have the aggression and competitiveness. However, he may be a better receiver who, playing opposite Garrett Wilson, gets enough targets and productivity to sneak into WR3 / Flex starting territory.
25 — RB Jaylen Wright (MIA, 120) — Miami drafted Raheem Mostert’s replacement in 2025. Wright is an absolute athletic stud; he’s got an all-pro athletic profile and was relatively productive in an average SEC offense. Wright offers size that Devon Achane lacks, so presumably, if he can transition to the NFL, he will become the short yardage and primary ball carrier, with Achane filling the 3rd down and stretch plays. In the Dolphins offense that can remain elite, Wright is a great stash player for ’25 with upside on a Mostert injury in ’24.
26 — WR Jermaine Burton (CIN, 80) — Burton is a good replacement for Tyler Boyd and, if he can continue to develop, has the potential to be a Tee Higgins fill-in come 2025. That said, he will not ascend to a featured role due to a lack of elite talent and Ja’Marr Chase’s presence.
27 — WR Jalen McMillan (TB, 92) — McMillian is another of the UW receivers in this draft. Did Penix elevate them or vice versa? I tend to think Penix helped Polk and McMillian, not to mention the presense of Odunze to take coverage of them. That said McMillian has good size and steps into a potential starting role in ’25 as the Bucs turn over their aging receiving core.
28 — RB Audric Estime (DEN, 147) — Estime fell to the 5th round due to terrible combine testing (4.71 40-yard dash), but his playing speed is fine, and his productivity for the Fighting Irish was high (29 TDs and 2300 yards on over 6 YPC) over the past 2 seasons. He’s a good fit in Sean Payton’s system as a plodder complement to Javonte Williams.
Others in the Mix
WR Troy Franklin
QB Spencer Rattler
RB Braelon Allen
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.
RB Isaac Guerendo
RB Will Shipley
RB Ray Davis
RB Bucky Irving
