NFL Scouts Miss on QBs, NBA Scoring Records & Super Bowl 58
Super Bowl Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs vs. SF 49’ers. 49’ers are -2.5 favorites; O/U 47.5 points but I see this as a toss up contest.
I’m predicting the 49’ers will win. I’m going with my heart but also my head. KC wins if the 49’ers defensive line doesn’t get pressure and/or they can’t run the ball against KC. But I predict the 49’ers will control time of possession enough to keep Mahomes magic to a minimum, and the 49’ers will come up with more big plays than the Chiefs in a multi-possession victory. Look the Chiefs offense has been pedestrian, and their defense lights out, particularly of late. However the 49’ers bring a unique offense into this Super Bowl. They run out of different sets, they like to put defenses into mismatches and they have a deep set of weapons to pressure teams (arguably best RB, FB, WR tandem and top 5 TE) from all angles of the field.
NFL QB Scouting Misses
Let me start by saying this is a broader critique of how scouting in most sports continues to overweight size/strength/athletic attributes versus heart/competitiveness/past performance. For example if you look at the top 5 QB’s over the past 20 years — the list would certainly include Tom Brady (6th round), Peyton Manning (#1 overall), Patrick Mahomes (3rd QB selected in his draft), and Drew Brees (2nd round), and possibly include Aaron Rodgers (late 1st round pick), Lamar Jackson (last pick in 1st round), Russell Wilson (3rd round), and Ben Roethlisberger (mid 1st round). If we isolate that top group of likely, only Manning was his draft’s top QB selected, and for many they weren’t in the top 2 or 3. Furthermore when you isolate why a guy falls in the retrospective redraft, it typically comes down to 2 factors — a perceived lack of size and athletic ability.
In the case of Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson there was an assumption that they lacked a crucial component to ever be “great”, even though in each of their cases they had played outstanding football at a power five school, in 2 of the 3 instances they were excellent multiple year starters for teams that they pushed to new heights.
So why do scouts get this wrong so often?
The primary reason is they under value leadership, performance, not just statistics but team performance, and put too much emphasis on physical ability.
Size & Athletic Ability
Every top QB selected in the draft since 2000 has been either a prototypical size (6’4” 220+ pounds) and/or is an electric athlete (e.g. MIchael Vick & Kyler Murray). The exception to this was Baker Mayfield who was the same size as Brock Purdy and a below-average athlete. In fact if you look at the biggest busts in the top 15 of NFL drafts at all positions, it’s overvaluing size — as the biggest busts were all prototypical height weight and had strong arms.
The answer is they overestimate size and arm strength, and undervalue performance, particularly for quarterbacks who reset culture at tier 2 power five schools. More detail here.
NBA
We’re beyond the season’s midpoint, and we’re having a wonderful year, particularly if you prefer scoring. The NBA is averaging 115.6 PPG, up a full point from a year ago (114.7) and precisely 5 PPG since the 2020–2021 season. This season’s average is highest in 60 years and within striking distance of the all-time record (118 PPG). And to take it further we’re seeing more 60+ point performances than any other time in the history of the league with 7 of the 90 total in the history of the league happening this season, including the 4th all time when Luka Doncic dropped 73 a few weeks back. Curry just dropped 60 in a loss, which is one of the all time best games for a player that is 35 years or older, tying Kobe Bryant who did it in his last game ever.
I’ll be curious to see how the league finishes the season, whether officiating gets tighter as the season progresses, reducing scoring, or we see more scoring. I do know the players today are infinitely better offensively than even 20 years ago. There are few if any non offensive players on the court, most centers can shoot higher than 30% from 3, making their true shooting percentage over 50%, and the floor spacing allows for a much more beautiful game. Which I personally am loving.
Excited to go deeper on this in the coming months as we get into the 2nd half of the NBA season.
