NFL Conference Title Game Predictions; NFL Draft Fantasy Relevant Prospects + Coaching Fits
We’re down to the final four in the NFL this season — Ravens, Chiefs, 49’ers & Lions.
I’ll take a stab at all the coaching changes, the mock drafts relating to fantasy and predictions for the conference title games.
Ok, it’s a big week on the sports front with the NBA having some tremendous performances — Embiid dropping 72 is crazy. He dominated Wemby, who also had 33, and looks like he will eventually be a star as he gets some NBA reps and firmly into his 20’s.
But back to the NFL for this show.
Coaching Changes
LA Chargers have hired Jim Harbaugh. This seems like a good match on paper. Harbaugh has won at every stop on his head coaching journey, turning dormant programs at the University of San Diego, Stanford, and SF 49ers into great teams in short order, and he just took the University of Michigan to the title. This is precisely the hire the Chargers need to give themselves a run at excellence and to take advantage of Justin Herbert’s talent. However, I’m not convinced this will turn Herbert into a dominant fantasy producer. Harbaugh traditionally favors balanced offenses that win in the trenches, so while the Chargers will be more brutal, and more competitive, I’m taking the under on many of their offensive statistics for 2024 season.
Tennesse Titans have hired Brian Callahan. The son of former NFL head coach, who took the Oakland Raiders to the Super Bowl in the early 2000’s, and well renowned offensive line coach. Callahan has shown a proclivity to be around and coach dominant offenses, as an early assistant on the record-breaking Denver Broncos offenses in mid-2010’s, and then recently as OC for the Cincinnati Bengals. Callahan is a pass-first philosophy, which will be a big shift from the Titans, unless you go back to their Oilers, Warren Moon days, this franchise has been a ground-and-pound one (hence Derrick Henry and Eddie George before that). So there may be some sneaky fantasy value next year IF you believe in Will Levis.
Las Vegas Raiders removed the interim tag on Antonio Pierce. I am not sure how I feel about this one. Pierce brought toughness and certainly improved team culture, but is he innovative? Will the Raider’s mystique and competitiveness return? Not sure. I’ll reserve judgment to see what he does on the offensive side of the ball, but I’m not expecting anything different than what we saw to finish 2023.
The New England Patriots promoted DC Jerod Mayo to head coach. He’s already shown an openness lacking in the past, which has been nice. Stating he’s “ready to spend some money” in free agency and also alluding to the fact they will be selecting a QB with their 1st pick (#3 overall). It’s still a wait-and-see on the offensive philosophy, though.
The one Offensive Coordinator hire to discuss is the Chicago Bears hiring Shane Waldron, formerly the Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator. I like this hiring for the Bears as Waldron worked under Sean McVay in LA, he’s helped develop quarterbacks and believes in a strong running game that is predicated on motion, quick passing, and spread offensive sets. Likely breaking in Caleb Williams next year and possibly an early wide receiver selection, the Bears will be a potential fun fantasy spot with some underrated offensive talent in place (DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson).
We still don’t have a coaching decision for the Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Commanders, and Carolina Panthers. Link to latest news on coaching hires.
NFL Conference Championships
KC Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens — Ravens are favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under is 44.5 points. I thought KC would have lost one or two rounds ago based on their mediocre offense and Mahomes looking pretty average, but his competitiveness and their defense has saved them, big time. The Ravens are the most complete team in the NFL right now, I don’t see how they lose this one but I can’t bring myself to bet against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. I take the Chiefs and the points, I think this one is close.
Detroit Lions @ SF 49’ers — 49’ers are 7-point favorites, the over/under is 51. If Deebo Samuel plays, I like the 49ers on their home field with projected sunny, 60+ degree weather. If Deebo is out, that takes an explosive element away from the 49ers. Detroit will move the ball but their weakness is on defense where they’re giving up a ton of points. I’ll take the 49ers but not to cover.
2024 NFL Draft Fantasy Relevant Prospects
NFL Draft Participants are set, so we can start to discuss which rookies will be fantasy-relevant. The draft is still three months ago, but speculation is the core to what we all do as diehard fans and fantasy players.
Quarterbacks — We’ve got the top 3 picks likely to be Caleb Williams (USC), Drake Maye, (UNC) and Jayden Daniels (LSU). Maye and Daniels will flip-flop back and forth. JJ McCarthy (UM) is starting to become a consistent mock in the 1st round teens. He’s got the talent. Michael Penix (UW), and Bo Nix (Oregon) are also in the mix, though both may fall to the 2nd or 3rd rounds. So firmly, we’ve got four guys who will be heir apparent; let’s hope they’re franchise guys in 2024.
Running Back — There is some talent here, but nothing like Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley. There will be no backs selected in the 1st round, and there is a possibility we may not see one until late second round. There are several guys I like, though. Jonathan Brooks (Texas), Audric Estime (ND), Blake Corum (UM), Trey Benson (FSU), and MarShawn Lloyd (USC) are the guys who will fall into the late 2nd and 3rd rounds. Some of this depends on where they land…for example, if Corum or Benson end up with the Chargers, they could have some immediate value as a pounder for Harbaugh, but they could just as easily land as a clear short-yardage backup to Breece Hall or Tajae Spears or James Cook.
Wide Receiver — You could argue this is possibly the best receiver class in years, though we’ve had some great ones recently. Many are predicting that between TE Brock Bowers (UGA), WR’s Marvin Harrison Jr (OSU), Malik Nabers, (LSU) and Rome Odunze (UW), we may see the top 7 picks be QBs and Receivers. And beyond the top 3 WRs, we’ve got a ton of high-quality NFL talent in Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU), Keon Coleman (FSU), Adonai Mitchell (UT), Troy Franklin (Oregon)
Tight End — I mentioned Brock Bowers above, he’s a lock in the top 15, likely top 10. After that you’ve got Texas TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, and a few hybrid guys. Erick All (Iowa) is an interesting selection as he played in an offense that didn’t utilize him as a receiver but he’s somebody I’ll be paying attention to.
