College Football Bowl Predictions & Draymond Green’s Legacy?
Realignment discussion
Last week I had a guest on the show, Crotch, and we discussed at length. I had a few listeners reach out on X/Twitter (@fscollective) pointing out some of the immediate term smoke about the ACC, and even some rumors that would confirm my expectation that even the SEC and Big 10 could see some expulsion of current members. I will reference last week’s show to remind everybody — this will ultimately come down to revenue, and it’s only a matter of time before the TV networks partner with the top 30ish schools, to create a “premier conference” that excludes smaller market schools (e.g. Indiana, Kentucky, Purdue) and includes larger markets not in those conferences (e.g. Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State), to compete at the highest level. I believe this will result in a division 2 type that incorporates the SMU, Duke, Northwestern, Colorado, Texas Tech, Cal, Stanford types where they can play up if they have continued success but likely will remain on the outside looking in.
Bowl Game predictions
I’m not going to tackle the small time games because let’s be honest, so many decent players are either jumping into the portal or opting out to stay healthy for NFL combine. So I will focus on the historical New Years Day Games and the CFP matchups.
CFP Semifinals
Alabama vs. Michigan — Alabama figured their offense out. If Milroe plays the way he did down the stretch, Michigcan will struggle to keep up. Both of these schools have a great defense but it’s on the offensive side of the ball where there is the biggest risk. I see this being either a low scoring, tough nosed game that will turn on a random bounce of the ball in the 4th quarter, or it will be a Crimson Tide blow out. Alabama has more speed and NFL talent, and if they get into a track meet, this came won’t be close. I’m taking Alabama.
Texas vs. Washington — This matchup could go either way, both teams being dynamic on the offensive end but also don’t field the toughest defenses either.
A lot of people are pointing out it’s the SEC vs. the Big 10. Which is true and a harbinger of the future. Note though that once the playoff expands, regular season perfection won’t be necessary and teams from the ACC and Big 12 will have entries, making those conferences relevant until we settle into a sustained tv revenue sharing model. As for the games….
NBA — Draymond Green’s Legacy
So far the NBA season is off to a good start. Lots of parity with the exception of the San Antonio Spurs, who have a lot of be happy about with rookie phenom Wembenyana,
Arguably the biggest story for the league has been the behavior of Golden State Warriors great Draymond Green. He’s been suspended “indefinitely” by the league and the Warriors brass appeared to be comfortable with that decision, stating they thought it was “fair” and that they are focused on helping Draymond to get “help”. I won’t comment on whether Draymond deserved this, he’s a passionate player who plays on the edge, and sadly he was having a resurgence season offensively hitting 3’s at a rate (42%) not seen in years, and being an impactful two way contributor. I also won’t deep dive on whether the Warriors dynastic era is over, other than to say it’s on life support because it’s clear Steph Curry is the heart and soul of this run, and he’s 35, so unless they get it together this year or next, Curry’s impact will wane and there are no replacements on their roster.
But what does interest me is where does Draymond’s career fit in the history of the NBA? The accolades are an important place to start. The guy has been an important defensive anchor of a 4 time NBA champion team who also made it to the finals 6 times over an 8 year period. He was defensive player of the year, has been all defense 8 times, 4 time all star, 2 time all nba. I would also add he’s one of the bigger personalities of this era, and will likely remain a Kenny Smith, as the floor, in pop culture as he runs into NBA studio show work post career. Which is to say his reputation or at least popularity is and likely will remain much bigger in perception than reality. So where does he sit in the pantheon of nba players?
Similarity scores on Pro Basketball Reference have him closest to Gordon Hayward & Kevin Willis, a few other names Lamar Odom and Zack Randolph. He has a 77% HOF probability according to Pro basketball reference. I believe he’s a lock for the HOF but that’s not saying a whole lot. Ultimately his legacy hasn’t been written, if he can return from this bout mentally stronger, more resolute to show all the naysayers he’s still a dominant contributor to winning playoff basketball. He will have a shot to be talked about as a top 100 all time player. But that chapter still needs to be written by him.
